--- title: "The Risks of War and the Necessity of Extending the Commander's Term | Ghazi Mahmoud" url: https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/2023-10-26-8b3ec0/ lang: en description: "Lebanon's financial and economic crisis has been worsening since it came into the open at the end of October 2019, with no serious initiatives on the horizon to halt the protracted collapse that has wiped out the life earnings and savings of the Lebanese, struck at the foundations of the national economy, and curtailed its prospects for growth and development." --- [All articles](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/) # The Risks of War and the Necessity of Extending the Commander's Term [Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Dr. Ghazi Mahmoud](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/about/) 26 Oct 2023 · 6 min read [Politics and security](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/geo/) Lebanon's financial and economic crisis has been worsening since it came into the open at the end of October 2019, with no serious initiatives on the horizon to halt the protracted collapse that has wiped out the life earnings and savings of the Lebanese, struck at the foundations of the national economy, and curtailed its prospects for growth and development. Notably, the collapse and its repercussions have not been confined to the financial and economic spheres and the banking sector, but have extended to the educational and hospital sectors in addition to the tourism sector, encompassing all of Lebanon's comparative advantages while threatening the country's remaining military and security institutions. The coronavirus pandemic that struck Lebanon at the beginning of 2020 had financial and economic repercussions equal to, and perhaps greater than, its health complications, as confronting it and curbing its spread imposed heavy financial burdens and disrupted economic activities, particularly productive ones, exacerbating the financial and economic crisis. This occurred just as the banking sector began to falter and the value of the national currency depreciated, accelerating the deterioration of economic conditions, raising unemployment rates, and causing poverty rates to climb. Compounding the crisis and making it even more complex was the Beirut Port explosion on August 4, 2020, as if Lebanon's financial and economic crisis and the repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic were not enough, with the blast causing material losses estimated at between 10 billion and 15 billion US dollars. It also destroyed the port and its grain silos and affected around 50,000 residential units in the surrounding area, in addition to killing more than 218 people, including the missing of whom no trace was found, injuring more than 7,000 others, and depriving around 300,000 people of shelter. Although the causes of the financial and economic crisis afflicting Lebanon lie in the governance of the national economy and the management of its financial resources, this does not diminish the responsibility of the political parties holding power for the depths to which the country's financial and economic conditions have sunk, all the more so since these parties took no initiative toward genuine remedies while the country moved from one crisis to a larger and more complex one, especially after they managed to return to Parliament in elections that had been counted on to inject new blood into the veins of Lebanese politics. As the chapters of the financial and economic crisis grew ever harder and more complex, political divisions surfaced and became clearer, extending to all political files. Meanwhile, economic files were the sole common denominator among the parties in power, from bringing down the economic recovery plan of Hassan Diab's government and passing the demarcation of Lebanon's maritime border with the Israeli enemy, to evading the enactment of reform laws, and on to other files that bring material benefit to these parties, such as fuel and others. It is no exaggeration to say that the political parties of every stripe were the sole beneficiaries of the financial and economic crisis, and they did not hesitate to postpone municipal elections twice in a row, once on the pretext of a lack of financial appropriations and once because of the vacancy in the presidency of the republic, while holding parliamentary elections thanks to which they continued to hold on to power and help themselves to its spoils. Whereas a new government was supposed to be formed after the recent parliamentary elections, political disputes prevented that and kept in place a caretaker government that marked an opening to vacancy across the seats of constitutional authority. An observer cannot help wondering how the political parties can agree on passing an agreement of the magnitude of the maritime border demarcation deal yet fail to agree on forming a new government or electing a president of the republic. And is it permissible to go on violating constitutional and legal rules and running a state whose institutions are disintegrating and whose authority is fading away through whatever legal exceptions and made-to-order legislative opinions are available, especially since the cause of the financial and economic crisis from which Lebanon suffers lies in violating the laws and regulations in force, and in the custodians of the public interest flouting legal rules and bending them to serve their personal interests under factional banners? On the eve of Army Commander General Joseph Aoun reaching retirement age at the beginning of February 2024, fears are mounting that the vacuum will reach the helm of the army command amid the political dispute among the parties in power. This is despite the fact that no chief of staff has been appointed to succeed Major General Amin al-Erem, who retired at the end of December 2022, and the same holds true for the remaining members of the Military Council who have retired. While legal consultations and jurisprudential opinions contrary to the articles of the Defense Law proliferate, practical solutions are absent, placing the entire nation, and not the army alone, at an extremely dangerous crossroads. The parties that have failed to this day to elect a president of the republic and to appoint a chief of staff, a director general of General Security, a governor of Banque du Liban, and others will not be able to agree on appointing a new commander of the Lebanese Army, at a time when military and security institutions, and above all the Lebanese Army, have become the sole hope for the state to recover its natural role in protecting the country, managing its vital facilities, and reviving economic and developmental activity. The Israeli war on Gaza and rising fears that it could reach Lebanon underscore the delicacy of this juncture and the dangers it carries, requiring the political parties to rise to placing the national interest first, ahead of other considerations and calculations, to rise to the level of the challenge posed by the explosive situation in southern Lebanon, and to proceed to elect a president of the republic, paving the way to resolving the political and economic crises alike. Yet the gravity of this stage obliges these parties to send messages of reassurance to the Lebanese Army, command and rank and file alike, especially since the challenges facing the army are not limited to the military and security side, but include the economic side and what the army, officers, noncommissioned officers, and enlisted personnel, suffers from the decline in the purchasing power of their salaries. Perhaps what would most reassure the army command is the application of the Defense Law with regard to filling vacancies in command posts, foremost among them a chief of staff. As for Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, his term at the helm of the command must be extended by a law issued by Parliament, especially since the country is in an undeclared state of emergency that necessitates this extension, and given the need for the army commander to persevere in carrying out his duties at this exceedingly dangerous moment, for the people of Mecca know its mountain passes best. Translated from Arabic with AI. [Read it in Arabic](https://ghazimahmoud.com/articles/2023-10-26-8b3ec0/) ## Published in - [OZ Arab Media](https://ozarab.media/مخاطر-الحرب-وضرورة-التمديد-للقائد/) ## More on politics and security [All articles on this subject](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/geo/) [27 Jun 2023 · Banque du Liban's Measures and Circulars and the Lost Confidence · LinkedIn, Lebanon Files ](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/2023-06-27-4e413a/) [15 Jun 2023 · The Electricity Plan and Iraqi Fuel · Channel 23, Lebanon Files ](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/2023-06-15-b23a4f/) [23 May 2023 · Between the Grey List and Normalization with the Crisis · LinkedIn, OZ Arab Media ](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/2023-05-23-ed2b38/)