--- title: "The Economic Repercussions of the Israeli Attacks | Ghazi Mahmoud" url: https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/2024-10-09-93ea06/ lang: en description: "Alongside the humanitarian and social suffering caused by the persistent Israeli attacks on Lebanon, these attacks portend severe economic repercussions that grow day by day as the aggression continues and expands." --- [All articles](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/) # The Economic Repercussions of the Israeli Attacks [Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Dr. Ghazi Mahmoud](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/about/) 9 Oct 2024 · 6 min read [The Lebanese economy](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/leb/)[The world economy](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/world/)[Politics and security](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/geo/) Alongside the humanitarian and social suffering caused by the persistent Israeli attacks on Lebanon, these attacks portend severe economic repercussions that grow day by day as the aggression continues and expands. These repercussions began with the onset of the attacks in early October 2023, owing to the destruction they caused in the Lebanese villages bordering the usurping entity. Meanwhile, the emerging repercussions come at a time when Lebanon is still grappling with the fallout of its financial and economic crisis since the end of 2019, making conditions more complex and solutions more difficult. Yet the most dangerous development lies in the expansion of the aggression waged by the Israeli enemy army since the morning of this past September 24, being the fiercest and most intense against Lebanon since confrontations with Hezbollah began about a year ago, and causing the displacement of nearly 1.2 million people. Moreover, the waves of displacement are not limited to internal displacement alone, but also include the displacement of nearly 90,000 Lebanese and more than 230,000 Syrians to Syria. Meanwhile, departure traffic through Beirut International Airport on Tuesday, October 8, saw the number of departing passengers rise to 5,666, while arrivals were limited to 800, according to an estimate by Mohammad Shamseddine, a researcher at Information International. The waves of displacement have disrupted the economy in many Lebanese regions and governorates, with expectations that the numbers of displaced people will increase over the coming period. As for the number of martyrs from the Israeli attacks, it has surpassed 2,100 martyrs, including more than 130 children and 300 women, with more than 10,000 other people sustaining various injuries since the start of the Israeli aggression on Lebanon, according to a toll announced by the Public Health Emergency Operations Center of the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health on Tuesday, the eighth of this October. The scale of destruction inflicted by the aggression on homes and residential complexes in the targeted villages and towns and in Beirut's southern suburbs constitutes one of the gravest economic repercussions of this aggression, with its humanitarian and social dimensions. The scale of destruction in the South had already exceeded 2 billion US dollars, according to a United Nations spokesperson this past July 1. Meanwhile, the toll of the recent attacks is expected to amount to several times the losses of the first ten months of confrontations, as entire neighborhoods and residential complexes have been targeted and razed to the ground. The growing scale of destruction raises the issue of the mounting cost of reconstructing what has been demolished, at a time when Lebanon lacks even the minimum financial and economic capacities required to address the consequences of the aggression amid its ongoing and worsening financial and economic crisis. This is especially true given that the recent aggression caused economic growth to fall to less than 0.5 percent, after it had been expected to exceed 2 percent in 2024. Gross domestic product is also expected to decline to less than $18 billion due to the losses inflicted on the various economic sectors. The tourism sector, with its various facilities including hotels, restaurants and entertainment venues, was at the forefront of the sectors damaged by the Israeli attacks, as hotel occupancy rates fell and the number of patrons at restaurants and entertainment establishments declined. Developments in the second half of the summer of 2024 prompted expatriates to cancel reservations and those who had arrived to cut short their vacations for fear of an expansion of the aggression and a suspension of flights. Notably, tourism accounts for about 20 percent of the workforce and nearly 26 percent of current account revenues, according to the credit rating agency S&P Global. Standard & Poor's estimates that a mere 10 percent drop in the number of arrivals will cost the Lebanese economy 3.3 percent of gross domestic product, or more than $5 billion. Revenues in this sector previously ranged between 5 billion and 7 billion US dollars annually, whereas if the drop in the number of arrivals to Lebanon reaches 70 percent, its cost will amount to no less than 22.9 percent. That applies to the tourism sector alone, not to mention the losses that may be inflicted on other economic sectors. For its part, the agricultural sector has suffered direct losses due to the Israeli aggression on Lebanon, particularly in the South and the Bekaa, where the enemy pursued a scorched-earth policy and used internationally banned phosphorus bombs. This prevented the harvesting of current crops and deprived farmers of their revenues, while also rendering these lands unsuitable for cultivation in the foreseeable future and raising the cost of reclaiming them in the future. Losses in the agricultural sector over the past eight months amount to around $3 billion, according to an estimate by the Lebanese Minister of Economy in a statement to the Al Jazeera satellite channel, while they are expected to have doubled today. As for the industrial and commercial sectors in the South, they too have suffered heavy losses due to the ongoing Israeli aggression, with the number of destroyed establishments exceeding 200 through last August, according to an estimate by the researcher Mohammad Shamseddine. Meanwhile, the recent attacks have inflicted total destruction on a large number of industrial and commercial establishments in Beirut's southern suburbs, where it is difficult to estimate the scale of these losses given the impossibility of conducting a field survey while the aggressive attacks continue. Remittances from Lebanese expatriates also had their share of decline due to the persistent Israeli aggression, as the drop in the number of arrivals to Lebanon deprived the country of their direct contribution to the economic cycle, in addition to the direct cash inflows they provide. The World Bank had estimated these remittances at $6.4 billion in 2023, equivalent to 23.4 percent of the country's gross domestic product. The true figure, however, is much higher, since the largest share of remittances flows into Lebanon in cash without passing through banks and money transfer institutions. The continuation of the Israeli aggression on Lebanon increases its financial cost and economic repercussions, while its financial and economic crisis remains entrenched without solutions. Needless to say, the only way to curb the repercussions of the Israeli aggression on Lebanon is an immediate ceasefire, as there is no point in continuing a spiral of violence that will lead only to further material and human losses. The Lebanese state must assume responsibility for a ceasefire and guarantee it through its military and security institutions, in return for the international community guaranteeing that the Israeli aggression on Lebanon is reined in and held in check. Translated from Arabic with AI. [Read it in Arabic](https://ghazimahmoud.com/articles/2024-10-09-93ea06/) ## Published in - [Channel 23](https://ch23.com/Article/202102/التداعيات-الاقتصادية-للاعتداءات-الإسرائيلية) - [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%A1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-ghazi-mahmoud-ph-d--x4wdf/) - [Lebanon Files](https://archive.lebanonfiles.com/2024/articles/باقلامهم/التداعيات-الاقتصادية-للاعتداءات-الإ/) - [MTV Lebanon](https://www.mtv.com.lb/news/1499296) - [OZ Arab Media](https://ozarab.media/التداعيات-الاقتصادية-للاعتداءات-الإ/) - [Radar News](https://www.radar-news.net/التداعيات-الاقتصادية-للاعتداءات-الإ/) ## More on the Lebanese economy [All articles on this subject](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/leb/) [11 Sep 2024 · Adjusting the salaries of public sector employees and retirees, back to square one · Channel 23, MTV Lebanon ](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/2024-09-11-aa3e5b/) [4 Jul 2024 · Eurobonds: The Lebanese Government Must Not Waste Time · Lebanon Files, Radar News ](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/2024-07-04-0d64e9/) [3 Jul 2024 · Eurobonds and Resolving Lebanon's Financial Crisis · Channel 23, OZ Arab Media ](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/2024-07-03-0cdb33/)