--- title: "Oil Prices Between America's Wishes and Market Realities | Ghazi Mahmoud" url: https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/2025-05-15-8c0369/ lang: en description: "As US President Donald Trump visits the Middle East, the countries of the OPEC+ alliance have decided to increase production." --- [All articles](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/) # Oil Prices Between America's Wishes and Market Realities [Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Dr. Ghazi Mahmoud](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/about/) 15 May 2025 · 4 min read [Energy, oil and gas](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/energy/) As US President Donald Trump visits the Middle East, the countries of the OPEC+ alliance have decided to increase production. In part, the decision falls within the framework of supporting the US president's policy direction and his campaign promises to lower the price of oil, and consequently fuel prices for the American consumer, in addition to expanding oil investments and boosting production. Notably, the US president's promise to lower oil prices contradicts his desire to increase US oil production, particularly shale oil, because rising production costs make a price level of $60 an obstacle to achieving ambitious targets for output growth. Meanwhile, prices are heading toward a further decline with rising production from OPEC+ countries, especially Saudi Arabia, which is preparing to deal with a prolonged period of low prices. Lower oil prices hinder production growth. On the other hand, the chief executive of Liberty Energy, one of the largest US shale oil and gas companies, formerly headed by current US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, stated last April that price levels at $60 do not provide an environment conducive to investment, and that any further decline could lead to a reduction in investments in US shale oil, undermining future production plans. This runs counter to the view of the energy secretary, who is confident in the resilience of shale oil even at the $50 level, drawing on the capacity for innovation and operational efficiency. A continued decline in oil prices to levels approaching production costs, and at times falling below them, at many US companies prevents the intensification of domestic output in the United States and makes its dominance over the energy sector, to which Trump aspires, a distant goal. This decline has come amid investors' loss of confidence in the future as a result of the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs and protectionist trade policies imposed by Trump, which have led to lower forecasts for global oil demand growth. The impact of tariffs and OPEC+ decisions. Oil prices had fallen to lows of $60 as a result of tariff decisions, which led to tensions in global trade and volatility in the markets. The impact of these tariffs is evidenced by the rise in oil prices, however slight, immediately after America and China announced an agreement to suspend most of the tariffs imposed on bilateral goods. The OPEC+ decision to increase production, amid fears of oversupply, also contributed to mounting pressure on prices, even though markets had been anticipating the decision. Among the reasons for this decision is the desire of member states to bolster their market shares, as countries such as Iraq and Kazakhstan face challenges in complying with their quotas, especially Kazakhstan, where major foreign companies invest. Other countries also find it difficult to comply, whether out of unwillingness or due to force majeure, whereas countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait adhere strictly to their production quotas. In this context, the OPEC+ decision to raise output forms part of a long-term strategy in which economic and political dimensions intertwine. It is an attempt to strike a delicate balance between external pressures, market calculations, and producing countries' desire to preserve their market share, at a time when the oil market is no longer governed solely by supply and demand, having instead become a mirror of international influence and alliances. Price outlook. This volatility has prompted major financial institutions to revise their oil price forecasts for this year and next. Goldman Sachs lowered its estimate for the average price of Brent crude to $60 a barrel in 2025, expecting the decline to continue to reach $56 in 2026. For its part, Morgan Stanley forecast that the price would stand at $56 starting in 2025. Barclays, meanwhile, was more optimistic, projecting an average price of $70 this year before falling to $62 next year, reflecting a state of uncertainty over the future of the markets. The price of oil remains subject to the influence of three conflicting factors: a slowdown in the global economy, which lowers demand and consequently prices; second, geopolitical tensions and trade wars, which drive prices up; and third, increased production, whether by OPEC+ countries or other nations, which exerts downward pressure. It is a vicious circle within which the price moves amid a changing global energy landscape. Researcher in economic affairs. Translated from Arabic with AI. [Read it in Arabic](https://ghazimahmoud.com/articles/2025-05-15-8c0369/) ## Published in - [Taqamena](https://taqamena.com/سعر-النفط-بين-رغبات-أميركا-ومعطيات-الس/) ## More on energy, oil and gas [All articles on this subject](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/energy/) [2 Apr 2025 · Global Energy Trends and the Challenges of Transition and Market Balance · Channel 23, MTV Lebanon ](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/2025-04-02-9f1680/) [18 Mar 2025 · Lebanon and the Challenges of Delimiting Its Exclusive Economic Zone · Taqamena ](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/2025-03-18-adb177/) [13 Mar 2025 · Expected Petroleum Wealth and Lebanon’s Economic Recovery · OZ Arab Media ](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/2025-03-13-e682ab/)