Lebanon in the Eye of the Storm... and the Repercussions Are Mounting
As the world's attention turns to the US-Israeli war on Iran, Lebanon faces the domestic and regional repercussions of this war, particularly following Hezbollah's entry into the conflict in support of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This compounds the burdens on a country that has yet to recover, either from its economic crisis or from the effects of the Israeli aggression that followed the Gaza support war on October 8, 2023, and the 66-day war in 2024.
Indeed, the gravity of the Israeli aggression against Lebanon is not limited to the direct material losses it inflicts on residential buildings, industrial and commercial establishments, and infrastructure in Lebanese cities and villages. Rather, it also encompasses its interconnected and complex repercussions, which begin with the displacement of residents from the cities and villages of the South, Dahieh, and eastern Bekaa, and their systematic destruction, and do not end with the human, financial, and economic losses, in addition to the educational, humanitarian, and social repercussions that will result from this aggression.
The forced displacement of residents from their cities, villages, and homes stands out as one of the gravest repercussions of the Israeli aggression on Lebanon in general, and on the South and Dahieh in particular, given the family breakdown and scattering of displaced families it entails, with the number of displaced persons reaching at least 1.3 million, according to reports by the Ministry of Social Affairs.
This displacement also highlights the urgent and immediate need for decent shelters and for meeting the emerging needs of the displaced. It opens the door to latent social tensions that may worsen the longer the crisis drags on, while also increasing pressure on infrastructure and basic services, including water, electricity, hospital care, and education, in host areas.
The social and humanitarian repercussions of the Israeli aggression on Lebanon go beyond direct human and material losses, reaching deep into the social fabric amid disparities in economic and living conditions, particularly the overcrowding that accompanies displacement in host areas. This leads to a marked decline in the sense of safety and stability, especially among the most vulnerable groups, foremost among them children and the elderly.
As the aggression continues, displacement shifts from an emergency into a compounded social crisis, accumulating chronic crises that are difficult to contain in the short term, particularly as competition over limited resources intensifies. This could give rise to tensions between host communities and the displaced, threatening social cohesion and deepening the fragility of the societal structure.
The Israeli aggression on Lebanon takes on a destructive character with grave humanitarian dimensions, targeting civilians safe in their homes in clear violation of moral and humanitarian norms. The latest report by the Ministry of Public Health indicates that the number of martyrs between March 2 and March 24 rose to 1,072, including at least 125 children and 70 women, while the number of wounded reached 2,966. In the past 24 hours alone, 33 martyrs and 90 wounded were recorded, reflecting a steady escalation in the pace of violence.
The destructive trajectory of the aggression is evident in the systematic targeting of vital infrastructure, particularly bridges over the Litani River, electrical substations, and drinking water pumping stations in the South, in addition to the destruction and leveling of hundreds of residential units. Notably, the previous Israeli aggression had already left widespread devastation affecting around 100,000 residential units, according to a World Bank report issued in November 2024.
As the Israeli aggression on Lebanon continues and expands in scope, continuing the academic year in person becomes impossible, a difficulty compounded as residents flee their villages and towns to settle in shelters that are mostly public schools and high schools. At the same time, remote learning faces fundamental challenges linked to weak digital infrastructure and unequal access, which not only threatens the regularity of the school year, but also portends the weakening of the entire educational sector and undermines the future of education in Lebanon.
On the economic front, the Israeli aggression is causing deep damage across multiple levels, some related to the course of the aggression on Lebanon and some resulting from the global economic crisis triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran. These break down as follows:
- The halt of commercial and industrial activities, the disruption of production, and the abandonment of agricultural lands in southern areas, leading to lost harvests and depriving thousands of displaced families of their sources of income. - Higher transport and commuting costs and their knock-on effect on the prices of goods and services, driven by rising fuel prices resulting from the US-Israeli war on Iran and the ban on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, which increases inflationary pressures on the national economy. - A further rise in the prices of goods and services in the areas to which the displaced have moved due to increased demand, amid declining purchasing power and high inflation rates. - The disruption of tourism and a decline in the number of Lebanese arriving in Lebanon due to the conditions unfolding in the Arab Gulf states, entailing a drop in inflows of hard currency into the national economy. - A growing likelihood of a decline in remittances from Lebanese in the Arab Gulf states as mutual attacks between the belligerents continue, accompanied by Iranian attacks on Gulf countries. - Heightened risks of the Lebanese economy entering a new phase of recession, especially since Lebanese industries mostly use imported inputs amid rising global market prices and shipping costs, which curbs the competitiveness of Lebanese products. - A decline in gross domestic product due to the halt or slowdown of commercial and industrial activities, and the total or partial disruption of production.
The Israeli aggression is expected to drive up the cost of reconstruction, adding to the cost of the previous war, which the International Monetary Fund estimated at around $9 billion, leading to a marked increase in financing needs. Conversely, total public revenues are likely to decline as a result of shrinking economic activity and falling private consumption, an impact that could extend into coming years. This drop in revenues, alongside rising expenditures, is set to widen the public budget deficit and deepen fiscal imbalances.
Conclusion: It is clear from the above that the Israeli aggression on Lebanon cannot be reduced merely to a military confrontation with battlefield dimensions; rather, it aims to create a compounded, multi-level crisis in which security aspects intertwine with economic, social, and humanitarian ones, in a country already suffering from deep structural fragility.
Accordingly, the challenge lies not only in managing the repercussions of the aggression and containing its direct damage, but also in the ability to curb the accumulation of losses it causes, through rescue policies and comprehensive national approaches that strengthen societal resilience and lay the foundations for a phase of genuine recovery. Every delay in addressing the crisis, and every failure to prepare for the coming phase, threatens to turn these repercussions from a circumstantial crisis into a permanent reality that endangers Lebanon's future and its coming generations.
Amid ongoing regional escalation, a widening confrontation, and the absence of prospects for a clearly defined political solution, Lebanon remains before an existential test of its ability to preserve its social cohesion and economic stability and prevent a slide into further collapse, paving the way to restore a path of recovery and stability.
Translated from Arabic with AI. Read it in Arabic