---
title: "The Repercussions of the War and the Fertiliser Crisis on Agriculture in Lebanon and the World | Ghazi Mahmoud"
url: https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/2026-05-27-b692ae/
lang: en
description: "The US-Israeli war on Iran and its repercussions on the countries of the region are disrupting global trade and supply chains by obstructing navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the world facing one of the worst energy crises in its modern history, one that recalls the crisis of the 1970s."
---

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# The Repercussions of the War and the Fertiliser Crisis on Agriculture in Lebanon and the World

[Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Dr. Ghazi Mahmoud](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/about/)

27 May 2026 · 5 min read

[Energy, oil and gas](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/energy/)[The Lebanese economy](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/leb/)[The world economy](https://ghazimahmoud.com/en/articles/world/)

The US-Israeli war on Iran and its repercussions on the countries of the region are disrupting global trade and supply chains by obstructing navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the world facing one of the worst energy crises in its modern history, one that recalls the crisis of the 1970s. Yet the crisis confronting the world today is not confined to the shortage in energy supplies that has persisted for nearly three months, as it also encompasses a shortage in supplies of agricultural fertilisers, given that the strait is likewise a vital trade corridor linking the Arabian Gulf to the world.

Supply chain disruptions do not restrict their fallout to the energy market alone, extending instead across the remaining sectors of the economy. This applies to agricultural fertiliser supplies, whose decline to a near halt leaves farmers across most parts of the world without the inputs needed to grow their crops. Such a reality paves the way for overlapping crises, foremost among them a food crisis that threatens global food security through an expected drop in future agricultural output, given modern agriculture's heavy reliance on fertilisers and the stability of their supply chains.

Although recent attention has focused on shortages of oil and gas supplies amid the obstruction of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the decline in agricultural fertiliser supplies constitutes a shock of profound significance, taking shape without the fanfare generated by energy shortages, despite its major impact on food products and their global supply chains. Moreover, the agricultural fertiliser sector is one of the strongest drivers of rising inflation rates, an issue currently being avoided and even downplayed.

When inflation takes hold, its effects are not confined to the agricultural sector alone, spreading instead across the various sectors of the economy. One of the recurring lessons of market history is that inflationary pressures often first emerge in areas that receive insufficient attention from most economists. The waves of inflation in the 1970s demonstrated how a gradual decline in the supply of basic commodities and a growing inability to meet demand can drive up prices and push inflation rates higher.

The shortage in agricultural fertiliser supplies comes at a critical time for the Northern Hemisphere, as this marks its main planting season, leading to lower yields across cultivated areas and higher prices for agricultural produce. In this context, Carl Skau, deputy executive director of the World Food Programme, the FAO, explained that at worst, this means lower harvests and a failure of the coming season. At best, higher input costs will be added to food prices next year.

Nitrogen and phosphate are among the principal fertiliser components threatened by supply shortages as a result of the blockade imposed on the Strait of Hormuz, as the Gulf states used to export roughly half of global urea supplies, ranging between 46% and 49% of global supply. Both materials are essential elements in the manufacture of agricultural fertilisers, contributing to improved soil fertility, faster crop growth, and higher productivity, particularly for staple food crops such as wheat, maize, and rice.

While many countries hold reserves of fertilisers and their inputs, others face acute shortages and depend heavily on the Gulf region to secure their supplies of these fertilisers. Over the coming months, this shortage could weigh negatively on trade outside the Gulf region as countries focus on meeting their domestic needs. In India, for instance, the government is currently giving priority to supplying the domestic market and drawing on its urea stockpiles to produce fertilisers.

Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara, one of the world's largest fertiliser producers, warned in early May that the disruption to global trade caused by the war on Iran could result in the loss of up to 10 billion meals a week worldwide, and that the impact would fall hardest on the poorest countries.

Holsether estimates that there is currently a global shortfall in nitrogen fertiliser production of roughly half a million tonnes owing to the present situation. Lower crop yields resulting from limited fertiliser use could also trigger a price war over food products. He urged European countries to examine carefully the impact a potential price war would have on the most vulnerable populations in other countries.

Holsether also stressed that reduced use of nitrogen fertilisers could cut the yields of some crops by up to 50% in the first season. Although the fertiliser market is global, the main destinations for fertiliser shipments are Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, regions that will experience the fastest and most direct impact. He added that this could compound the problem in parts of the world already suffering from underuse of fertilisers, such as sub-Saharan Africa.

The production of staple grains in many countries, particularly Brazil and Argentina in Latin America, is closely tied to the availability of fertilisers, as the two countries together account for around 10% of global wheat exports, 39% of maize exports, and 66% of soyabean exports, according to estimates by the US Department of Agriculture. Both countries rely heavily on fertiliser imports, most of which come from the Arabian Gulf region, meaning that any rise in their prices translates into higher production costs and consequently higher prices.

Amid uncertainty over when and how shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal, several countries are seeking to develop alternative supply chains. Even so, if the disruption to the fuel and fertiliser trade persists for longer, food prices are expected to rise and threats to food security to mount across many parts of the world over the coming year, especially since producing these fertilisers requires the availability of key raw materials such as natural gas (for nitrogen) and sulphur (for phosphate), of which the Arabian Gulf is one of the primary sources.

In Lebanon, which faces worsening economic and social challenges, the shortage in agricultural fertiliser supplies and the surge in their prices are compounding the crisis in the agricultural sector, particularly in light of the extensive losses inflicted by the protracted Israeli war on farmland and the damage sustained by productive infrastructure, with affected areas exceeding 52,000 hectares, equivalent to roughly 22.5% of Lebanon's total agricultural land.

The gravity of this reality is heightened by the continuation of the brutal Israeli war on Lebanon, which threatens the loss of nearly a quarter of national agricultural output, bringing a direct threat to food security and undermining farmers' resilience and ability to sustain production.

Translated from Arabic with AI. [Read it in Arabic](https://ghazimahmoud.com/articles/2026-05-27-b692ae/)

## Published in

- [Al-Duha magazine](https://dhohamagazine.com/تداعيات-الحرب-وأزمة-الأسمدة-على-الزرا/)
- [OZ Arab Media](https://ozarab.media/تداعيات-الحرب-وأزمة-الأسمدة-على-الزرا/)
- [Lebanon Files](https://www.lebanonfiles.com/2026/articles/باقلامهم/تداعيات-الحرب-وأزمة-الأسمدة-على-الزرا/)

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