Hopes Remain High Despite the Change in the Drilling Site
Drilling operations in Block 9 are facing difficulties that prevent the continuation of the drilling started by the Transocean Barents rig last August 24, at the exact location where it began, after arriving at the block on the 15th of the same month.[1] This led to the issuance of a decision to modify the drilling site at the request of the operating company, TotalEnergies, knowing that twelve days had not yet passed since drilling operations began, while the drilling depth was limited to just 35 meters.
According to the operating company, the reasons preventing the continuation of drilling lie in the nature of the rocks at the drilling site, which prevented the insertion of the steel casing designed to protect the borehole and allow drilling to proceed, prompting the company to request moving the drilling to another location close to the first.[2] This decision comes at a time when a positive atmosphere had been spread regarding the imminent arrival at indicators of the availability of gas and oil in the early stages of drilling and before reaching the depth planned by the operating company.
This negative development in the drilling work is among the routine developments encountered in oil and gas exploration operations, even in locations that are geographically close to one another, each of which may have completely different geological conditions. However, what compounds the negative impact of such developments is the rising level of uncertainty over achieving positive results as quickly as hoped, as well as the increase in the total cost of exploration operations.
Relocating the drilling site has increased the time required to complete the work needed to explore for oil and gas reservoirs, which had been expected to take a period not exceeding 68 days. The need for additional time also delays the collection of suitable soil and rock samples from the various layers to be drilled, so that they may be studied and analyzed to examine their components and verify the presence of petroleum deposits or other evidence pointing to potential accumulations of oil, gas, or both.
It is worth noting that the data gathered from the samples of a single exploratory well may not be conclusive in confirming or ruling out the availability of hydrocarbon reserves. This requires drilling one or more additional exploratory wells to provide sufficient data on whether oil and gas exist in the area targeted for drilling, and to determine the volume of proven reserves and the feasibility of extracting them. Indeed, oil and gas exploration operations require operating companies to drill at least three wells in the explored area to dispel doubt with certainty, and the drilling success rate stands at roughly one in every five wells.
Conversely, in order to shorten the time needed to begin production, offshore drilling units are sometimes converted into production platforms, shifting these platforms from exploring for oil to extracting it once discovered. For the same purpose, successful exploratory wells are developed into production wells, helping to curb the costs required by additional drilling work. Given the importance of reaching proven reserves with the fewest possible exploratory wells drilled, exploration companies increasingly rely on advanced technology and invest heavily in data analytics and the use of the Internet of Things in their operations.[3]
The availability of oil and gas in a given location is tied to the existence of a petroleum system, which consists of all the geological elements and processes considered essential for petroleum accumulation. The required geological elements of a petroleum system are the source rock, the reservoir rock, the trap, and the seal or cap rock, whereas the geological processes are trap formation, generation, migration, accumulation, and preservation. The components of a petroleum system are also stratigraphic, temporal, and spatial, as the elements and processes must occur in the right place and at the right time to produce and accumulate petroleum.[4]
From the perspective of petroleum geochemistry, the fundamental element in the petroleum system is the source rock, which is the rock that generates or produces oil or gas. The term "source rock" derives from its being the source of petroleum resources and the site of their formation, and the more mature this rock becomes, the more petroleum substances it produces and drives to migrate toward the trap. Source rock consists of either limestone or shale, which together constitute the primary types of source rocks. Linking the elements of the petroleum system to the processes of petroleum geology is considered one of the effective methods for exploration and for distinguishing between reservoirs containing oil and gas and dry reservoirs.
The second component of the petroleum system is the reservoir rock, where petroleum substances that have migrated from the source rock accumulate, gathering in porous rocks and settling there thanks to the cap rock. The trap is a structural or stratigraphic feature that ensures a stable configuration of the seal and reservoir, thereby preventing the leakage of oil and gas. As for the cap rock, which constitutes the fourth element in the petroleum system, it consists of an impermeable rock or group of rocks that prevent these accumulations from escaping outside the trap.
Within this context, recent hydrocarbon discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin confirm the high probabilities of oil and gas availability beneath Lebanese waters. In particular, recent discoveries in Palestinian waters, in addition to numerous other discoveries near the modern continental slope, reinforce the existence of at least one effective source rock. Nevertheless, given regional source rock equivalents and the evolution of the basin, there are likely multiple productive source rocks.[5]
At a time when some observers were awaiting pleasant surprises during the drilling operation, such as gas or oil emerging during drilling before reaching the target depth, the operating company requested relocating the drilling site to another spot. Although the approved modification to the drilling location is a minor adjustment given the proximity of the new site to the first one, with its practical repercussions limited to time and cost, time weighs heavily on the Lebanese people, who are impatiently awaiting the extraction of the promised gas in the hope that it may bring a solution to their worsening financial and economic problems.
On the other hand, the fears sparked by changing the drilling location may be understandable, especially since the experience of Block 4 has not yet been forgotten, particularly as the operating company in Block 9 is the very same TotalEnergies. Yet these fears must not override a set of facts whose disregard contradicts reality, foremost among them that drilling is still in its early days and it is far too early to claim that halting its continuation was due to its intersecting with one of the arteries of the Israeli wells, especially given that Israel's share in the promised Qana well is guaranteed under the demarcation agreement previously signed by Lebanon.
What invites astonishment, however, is the very short distance between the first and second sites, as it is hard to imagine that the rock that prevented drilling from continuing at the first site does not extend to the new location. This means that the operating company ought to have requested moving the drilling site to a distance that would ensure avoiding encountering the obstructing rock or similar formations that might impede drilling at the new location.
While it is difficult to know the true motives behind modifying or relocating the drilling site, its effects remain limited because it is taking place in the opening days of drilling. Had this move occurred after drilling had reached advanced stages, it would have sent negative signals regarding expected reserves across the block as a whole, much like what happened in Block 4. Conversely, acting responsibly requires refraining from preempting the completion of drilling, heralding the imminent discovery of encouraging oil and gas reserves, and setting timelines.
Regardless of the relocation of the drilling site and its repercussions in terms of cost and time, the prospects of discovering commercial reserves in Block 9 remain high, according to the results of the seismic surveys conducted by Spectrum in 2012, following which it stated that there were roughly 2.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas, and considered the reserves available in that area to be among the richest and finest reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin.[6]
Suffice it to note that the consortium comprising France's TotalEnergies, Italy's Eni, and QatarEnergy submitted two applications to participate in the second licensing round to bid for Blocks 8 and 10 in Lebanese offshore waters last Monday, 2/10/2023, just one hour before the deadline for submitting applications closed, as an indication of the hydrocarbon reserves these blocks may hold, especially since the companies making up the applicant consortium are petroleum right holders in Blocks 4 and 9 in the waters of Lebanon's Exclusive Economic Zone.
[1], https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/exploratory-drilling-lebanons-offshore-block-9-set-begin-2023-08-22/
[2], Decision No. 32/Q.W., dated 12/9/2023. Official Gazette, Issue 40, dated 28/9/2023.
[3], Exploratory Well: What it Means, How it Works, Examples. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/exploratory-well.asp
[4], PETROLEUM SYSTEMS AND ELEMENTS OF PETROLEUM GEOLOGY. https://connect.spe.org/blogs/donatien-ishimwe/2014/09/05/petroleum-systems-and-elements-of-petroleum-geology
[5], 2-D Basin modeling study of petroleum systems in the Levantine Basin, Eastern Mediterranean. GeoArabia, 2011, v. 16, no. 2, p. 17-42 Gulf PetroLink, Bahrain.
[6], Lebanon’s First Steps in the Oil and Gas Industry“, 2018. Accessed on 20/10/2022, available on: https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/lebanon-s-first-steps-in-the-oil-and-66301/
Translated from Arabic with AI. Read it in Arabic